Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute professor designs computer system to eliminate plane delays – Times Union
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Boleslaw Szymanski, computer science professor at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, developed a system by which he says airlines could avoid 80 percent of delays.
A previous scene at the Albany International Airport when it’s busy and people are waiting for the security checkpoint. An RPI professor has developed a system by which he says 80 percent of flight delays could be avoided, reducing the crowd of people waiting for their flight.
ALBANY – If you’re stuck waiting out a flight delay at an airport — and thinking there must be a better way — you’re right.
A Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute computer science professor says he worked out a system by which 80 percent of airline delays would be eliminated.
Boleslaw Szymanski, the director of the Network Science and Technology Center at RPI, published a paper describing how to solve the most vexing holiday flight problem.
The center used each airline’s reported delays, the reasons for each delay, and what they said were their actual costs due to each delay. They determined that airlines could save money – in many cases halving their costs – by using predictive mathematics to plan where they needed extra planes and crews in advance.
It all started when Szymanski was stranded in Frankfort, Germany overnight, thanks to a flight delay. He had plenty of time to think about how his situation could have been avoided, and being in Frankfort inspired him.
“Frankfort had this fantastic mathematician in the 19th century who computed how many (soldiers) will die in horse accidents each year,” Szymanski said. “He found 14 would die. If we can do it with humans, why can’t we do it with planes?”
That started his research into why flight delays happen.
“Math helps us, it can predict,” he said. “We designed a system which allows airlines to make a decision in real time to decide whether to send a plane.”
The plan helps airlines place “spare planes” in certain airports and have an extra crew on call, predicting they will be needed.
“We even did it worst case, every airline for themselves, which may be easier initially. Even in this, it’s still very profitable for them to do it,” he said.
Using the system, 80 percent of the flight delays in the U.S. in 2016 could have been prevented, he said.
“Not all,” he added. “For example, a horrible storm – nothing will help.”
Airlines already move planes around in an attempt to reroute for forecasted storms, but he said most delays come down to crew or plane issues, which could be solved if there was an extra plane and crew ready for the seemingly unpredictable repair job or sudden staffing changes.
It’s not that unpredictable, if you use computer-speed mathematics, he said.
“We have all this data – we can predict probabilities,” he said.
His system prioritizes profit, calculating the cost of the delay versus the cost of the spare plane and crew.
“We plug them in only when statistics show it would be beneficial to the airline,” he said.
Gathering the data was also eye-opening.
“When we see how badly some airlines respond – it’s so irritating,” he said. “People would be much more willing to fly if they know something can be done about delays.”
But he doesn’t expect airlines to embrace his system to make passengers happier. He thinks the idea of saving money will win them over. He wants them to do a full analysis and check his program.
“It is really feasible,” he said. “They would see a financial benefit.”
Flying out of Los Angeles International Airport, Frontier Airline would save the most money with his system, he said. Their average cost per flight would be more than halved. At JFK in New York, Envoy Air would save the most, seeing their costs drop by more than 75 percent. That’s because of the number of delays at those smaller airlines.
But every airline would save money, with an average savings of $750 per flight. That adds up, he noted.
“We would be happy to work with any airline,” he said, adding, “Maybe we should start with the worst.”
Kathleen grew up in Glenville and now lives in Schenectady. She has covered the Capital Region for various newspapers since 2000, focusing on the interesting people who breathe life into their towns, villages and cities. She is the Times Union’s education reporter. You can reach her at Kathleen.Moore@timesunion.com or 518-918-5497.